Today the Case Shiller Index reported home prices fell more than twice as fast as expected in September than they did in August. I know many of my clients gasp when I tell them what their home appraised for, but it would appear prices may be going lower still.
On top of home values going down interest rates have gone up about .25% over the past few weeks and seem to be poised to go higher still. For many home buyers the rise in interest rates will negate the savings from a lower sale price, but that seems to be lost in the media's reporting.
Rates fell below the 200-day moving average (MA) back on November 15th and once below this key mark its going to be tough to see rates go lower again. The FNMA 3.5% bond shows that bond traders have tried to rally back above this 200-day MA three times over the past two weeks and turned lower each time. (bond prices going higher means rates go lower and vise versa).
I have been surprised rates have managed to stay as low as they are as long as they have. If you are looking to purchase a home or have been waiting to refinance because you expected rates to go lower...you may want to reevaluate your plan and get moving sooner than later to capture these low rates.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
Rates continue to move higher
It was a rough week for mortgage rates. Rates are up about .25% for all loan products due to a jittery bond market. Ever Since the Fed announced Quantatative Easing 2 (QE2) last week mortgage bonds have gone lower; pushing up the yeilds (thus rates).
Many had heard or hoped that this round of QE2 would push rates even lower and held off on a refinance opportunity for those lower rates...turns out that was not a good decision. Most of the time my adivice to clients is that if they like the rate they are being offered they should lock it in and not worry about if things get better or worse after that moment.
Many think they can hold out for what they think will be a better rate...sometimes that gamble pays off...and sometimes it doesnt. Keep in perspective that getting a .125% better rate on a 300k loan is only $21.70 savings in their payment. $21.70 savings over 360 months (30 year loan) adds up to $7811.71. Do you really want to gamble with rates going up to save $7800 over a 30 year period?
I have been surprised with the long run of low rates. I dont expect rates to shoot through the roof quickly, but I do think that rates will go up from here and if you have an interest rate over 5.25% or are in an adjustable rate mortgage you really should jump on this opportunity to refinance to a low rate now...and not be the person trying to save $21.70/month who missed out on the opportunity altogether because rates never did go back down.
Many had heard or hoped that this round of QE2 would push rates even lower and held off on a refinance opportunity for those lower rates...turns out that was not a good decision. Most of the time my adivice to clients is that if they like the rate they are being offered they should lock it in and not worry about if things get better or worse after that moment.
Many think they can hold out for what they think will be a better rate...sometimes that gamble pays off...and sometimes it doesnt. Keep in perspective that getting a .125% better rate on a 300k loan is only $21.70 savings in their payment. $21.70 savings over 360 months (30 year loan) adds up to $7811.71. Do you really want to gamble with rates going up to save $7800 over a 30 year period?
I have been surprised with the long run of low rates. I dont expect rates to shoot through the roof quickly, but I do think that rates will go up from here and if you have an interest rate over 5.25% or are in an adjustable rate mortgage you really should jump on this opportunity to refinance to a low rate now...and not be the person trying to save $21.70/month who missed out on the opportunity altogether because rates never did go back down.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
QE2-rates go up
The phone is ringing with clients asking how low rates have gone due to the Fed's Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2). hmmm...I guess the expectation is that with the Fed buying up Treasuries everyone thought that would push prices up...and thus the yields down (rates down.) That makes sense to me, but that isn't whats happened....why you ask?
The Fed is trying to accomplish a few primary goals.
1-to push the US dollar lower. When the dollar goes down it makes our exports seem cheaper in foreign markets thus increasing our exports. If we need to export more there will be a need for more workers to fill that demand thus improving the employment troubles.
2-because of #1 above the increase in exports will also improve the stock market...as those exports become sales the bottom line of US companies will improve and thus help the stock market move higher. An improvement in the stock market typically leads consumers to feel more 'confident' and consumers spend more of their money thus further improving the economy.
These both seem to be great goals if you are living in the US, but the trouble with these actions are that they are both designed to cause the economy to heat up and lead to improved GDP. Higher growth is good for your investments and if you want a job, but the growth is inflationary and inflation is not a good thing...above 2-3%. The Fed wants some inflation, but the trouble is that it could be hard for the Fed to control the rate of inflation in the coming years...things may heat up too much and inflation will definitely lead to higher rates. How high is the question.
Think back to the late 70's when we had massive Deflation...the Fed acted to heat things up then and if you are old enough you know what happened...rates in the early 80's were in the TEENS. Lets hope this round of Fed action will help improve the economy and that the Fed recognizes improvements early and can slow the ship before its cruising toward high inflation...and high rates.
Investors are mindful of the threat of inflation and may not be buying into the Feds plan to push bonds higher and rates lower...if investors dont buy the bonds along with the Fed the idea of lower rates may be a dream of the Feds and may not materialze for homeowners. The moral of the story is that rates are low...and may not go lower. Homeowners looking to refinance should be acting now and not wait for lower rates...4% should be low enough to encourage any thoughtful homeower.
The Fed is trying to accomplish a few primary goals.
1-to push the US dollar lower. When the dollar goes down it makes our exports seem cheaper in foreign markets thus increasing our exports. If we need to export more there will be a need for more workers to fill that demand thus improving the employment troubles.
2-because of #1 above the increase in exports will also improve the stock market...as those exports become sales the bottom line of US companies will improve and thus help the stock market move higher. An improvement in the stock market typically leads consumers to feel more 'confident' and consumers spend more of their money thus further improving the economy.
These both seem to be great goals if you are living in the US, but the trouble with these actions are that they are both designed to cause the economy to heat up and lead to improved GDP. Higher growth is good for your investments and if you want a job, but the growth is inflationary and inflation is not a good thing...above 2-3%. The Fed wants some inflation, but the trouble is that it could be hard for the Fed to control the rate of inflation in the coming years...things may heat up too much and inflation will definitely lead to higher rates. How high is the question.
Think back to the late 70's when we had massive Deflation...the Fed acted to heat things up then and if you are old enough you know what happened...rates in the early 80's were in the TEENS. Lets hope this round of Fed action will help improve the economy and that the Fed recognizes improvements early and can slow the ship before its cruising toward high inflation...and high rates.
Investors are mindful of the threat of inflation and may not be buying into the Feds plan to push bonds higher and rates lower...if investors dont buy the bonds along with the Fed the idea of lower rates may be a dream of the Feds and may not materialze for homeowners. The moral of the story is that rates are low...and may not go lower. Homeowners looking to refinance should be acting now and not wait for lower rates...4% should be low enough to encourage any thoughtful homeower.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Monday, May 10, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
Wild Ride!
the past 24 hours has been a wild one. Enjoy watching your stock portfolio fall 1000 points in a day? I dont! The upside to this crazy action is that mortgage bonds have performed well. With investors concerned about the situation in Greece and other European countries many investors are looking for safer places to put their investments. Mortgage bonds and treasury bonds seem to be where they are going. I think the big swing is over and rates will likely tick up a little next week as the fear subsides and investors see buying opportunities from the market correction.
Up.....Down....Up....Down. I would guess we will see a lot more of this until there is a clear idea on which way the economy goes. We had a good job report today...new hires were about 100k more than estimates, but then the unemployment rate went up to 9.9% which was higher than last month. These reports seem to be in conflict with each other and I am sure investors are still not clear if the worst is behind us or not.
Hold on and enjoy the ride...if you can!
Up.....Down....Up....Down. I would guess we will see a lot more of this until there is a clear idea on which way the economy goes. We had a good job report today...new hires were about 100k more than estimates, but then the unemployment rate went up to 9.9% which was higher than last month. These reports seem to be in conflict with each other and I am sure investors are still not clear if the worst is behind us or not.
Hold on and enjoy the ride...if you can!
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Consumer Confidence Lower than Expectations
Consumer Confidence came in today well below expectations. This shows the continued disconnect with the average consumer who is feeling pretty down about job prospects and the overall economy vesus the press who wants to announce things are doing better.
Though there are signs the worst may be behind us that doesnt make the 5 million workers who are now unemployed feel much better about their own circumstances. If consumers don't feel good about their own economic future they may be less willing to part with the money they do have for discretionary spending. Ultimately if consumers aren't consuming businesses will suffer and that will keep employers from hiring new employees as well as limit the tax revenue the government recieves.
Low tax receipts will make our deficit problems continue for a longer period of time. Deficits also need to be covered (paid for) by the issuance of Treasury Bonds and the more debt we accumulate the more real inflation becomes for us in the future.
On a positive note...today interest rates are better because of the low Consumer Confidence number and the implication that low Consumer Confidence will keep inflation low. Other news that has been a help to mortgage bonds is the turmoil in Greece. With the struggles in Greece hitting front page news it is clear now that there are other countries that are weighed down with a lot of debt that are having trouble covering their bills through this recesion.
It is worth looking around the world and noticing the policies of Greece, Spain and others who have expanded the services their government offers that they can no longer afford. Accross the ocean in Japan we see very similar issues. The US is not immune to this issue. With the HUGE budget deficits the past two years we need to be taking a hard look at the road ahead and changes may be necessary...even though change would be painful for many in our society.
We should all take these stories and apply to them to our own lives. If you are going to buy a home always make sure you are purchasing a home that you can afford and make sure you have funds available for that 'rainy day' as things aren't always going to be rosey. I would love to help you work through your budget to find the right price point for your family if you are looking to purchase a new home while the buyer credits are still offered through April 30th.
Though there are signs the worst may be behind us that doesnt make the 5 million workers who are now unemployed feel much better about their own circumstances. If consumers don't feel good about their own economic future they may be less willing to part with the money they do have for discretionary spending. Ultimately if consumers aren't consuming businesses will suffer and that will keep employers from hiring new employees as well as limit the tax revenue the government recieves.
Low tax receipts will make our deficit problems continue for a longer period of time. Deficits also need to be covered (paid for) by the issuance of Treasury Bonds and the more debt we accumulate the more real inflation becomes for us in the future.
On a positive note...today interest rates are better because of the low Consumer Confidence number and the implication that low Consumer Confidence will keep inflation low. Other news that has been a help to mortgage bonds is the turmoil in Greece. With the struggles in Greece hitting front page news it is clear now that there are other countries that are weighed down with a lot of debt that are having trouble covering their bills through this recesion.
It is worth looking around the world and noticing the policies of Greece, Spain and others who have expanded the services their government offers that they can no longer afford. Accross the ocean in Japan we see very similar issues. The US is not immune to this issue. With the HUGE budget deficits the past two years we need to be taking a hard look at the road ahead and changes may be necessary...even though change would be painful for many in our society.
We should all take these stories and apply to them to our own lives. If you are going to buy a home always make sure you are purchasing a home that you can afford and make sure you have funds available for that 'rainy day' as things aren't always going to be rosey. I would love to help you work through your budget to find the right price point for your family if you are looking to purchase a new home while the buyer credits are still offered through April 30th.
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