The PPI numbers were released today with signs that inflation is a little more 'real' than we have been seeing for the past few years. When producers (manufacturers) have higher costs for their raw materials or the energy it costs to manufacture their products they will often try to pass those higher costs on to the consumer in higher prices for their products. We will find out tomorrow if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out showing the higher PPI costs being passed on to the consumer. Given the current economy many manufacturers are having trouble passing their higher costs on to the consumer who has been a little tight fisted with their money.
However, today the very important support of the 200-day moving average for the FNMA 30-year bond was violated and thus rates have moved up a fair amount over the past three days and could move a bit higher before finding a new floor of support. Given the Federal Reserves exit from the MBP program in March and talk that they may begin to sell some of the mortgage bonds they have already purchased we may have seen the end of rates below 5% sooner than later.
I have been encouraging all my clients who are considering a refinance to get their rate locked as soon as possible and if the are shopping for a new house to find one quickly and lock down a rate. Based on the research I have done I do expect rates to be over 6% by summer...which could put a damper on new home sales this summer. Hopefully I am wrong and rates will remain low through the end of the year, but its not something I would bank on.
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